Introduction
Any review of 2007 pretty much writes itself. The past year has been a colossal year in politics, both home and abroad. Domestically we have seen the end of the Blair era, with the keys to 10 Downing Street passing, finally, to Gordon Brown. We have also observed a rollercoaster year in the fortunes of David Cameron and his re-branded Tories (you may recall Slippery Dave was under siege prior to the party conference, only to emerge stronger than ever). Holyrood has of course been captured by the SNP, and Northern Ireland hardly makes the papers anymore, never-mind the front pages. How things change?
On the international stage we have seen a Bush administration accepting its legacy, an emboldened Iran and Russia, and a China that appears increasingly confident in the world. We have watched various coup d’etat and political assassinations, and even a crackdown on Buddhist monks, but most of all, we have watched the oil price rise and settle at around the $100 per-bl mark, pointing to future conflicts – most definitely political and possibly military – over dwindling carbon-based resources. The early stages of the C21st century appear eerily reminiscent of the start of the C20th.
At home
In 2007 we said goodbye to our Prime Minister, Tony Blair. Easily the greatest British politician of his generation, the leader who seemed to have the electorate’s psyche hard-wired into his brain, had finally lost his touch. Political spin and various scandals had eroded trust in his leadership, but it was the war in Iraq and his relationship with George W. Bush, which was the real albatross around his neck. Even at the end, he was unrepentant about his decision to follow the American lead into Mesopotamia. Blair simply became more and more holier-than-thou as his political capital drained away. He had become detached from the electorate he once so masterfully manipulated. Blair resigned, allowing his bitter rival Gordon Brown, to claim the party’s leadership unchallenged.
Who would have thought that the fortunes of Gordon Brown could have swung so violently? In the early days of his fledgling premiership, the newly anointed PM was riding high after the much discussed “Brown bounceâ€. A fourth term looked a certainty as Tory knives were being sharpened ahead of David Cameron’s second summer conference. The Tories may have forgotten what it’s like to run the country, but when it comes to regicide, they’re definitely still the go-to guys.
Brown was all smiles and handshakes. He could do little wrong. Then a single political miscalculation (the will-he-wont-he election fiasco) threw the Brown bandwagon off-kilter. Cameron emerged from his conference on top in the polls. The roles had reversed: suddenly Brown could do no right, and Cameron no wrong. A flurry of political controversies, including the credibility-draining party funding scandal, threw the Labour Party into a tailspin and a fourth term majority now looks improbable.
At the year’s close the Tories are in a comfortable lead in the polls, and with the Lib Dems fitted out with a new Cameronesque leader, things do not bode well for Number 10’s incumbents. Brown will be under incredible pressure to call an election during the coming year, but unless his fortunes change drastically, it’s unlikely he’ll acquiesce to such demands from across the aisle - further damaging his tattered credibility in the eyes of the British people.
The economy will cool even further in ‘08 and more and more mortgages will default. Brown’s reputation as a economic titan will be all but destroyed. The Conservatives will talk about pensions and rocketing public spending (Brown has still not delivered any of the promised civil service cuts), and they’ll wax sanctimoniously about the country’s struggling middle-classes. In short, Gordon Brown will oversee the collapse of New Labour in 2008. And even if the government stumbles on into ‘09, the project will already be dead and Brown’s political career over.
Part two (Abroad) is here.
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At the year’s close the Tories are in a comfortable lead in the polls, and with the Lib Dems fitted out with a new Cameronesque leader, things do not bode well for Number 10’s incumbents. Brown will be under incredible pressure to call an election during the coming year, but unless his fortunes change drastically, it’s unlikely he’ll acquiesce to such demands from across the aisle - further damaging his tattered credibility in the eyes of the British people.
“Incredible” pressure? Get a grip. Where from? The Tories? Big deal. The saliency of this issue to the electorate is close to zero.
The economy will cool even further in ‘08 and more and more mortgages will default.
Yes, but not many.
Brown’s reputation as a economic titan will be all but destroyed.
More wishful thinking. There will be economic growth and interest rate cuts in 2008. There will be a big squeeze on profits in 2008, but not so bad for the personal sector, at least by the final quarter. Brown will, I guess, emerge with a slightly enhanced economic reputation precisely because all his destractors will have predicted a disaster which never materialises.
The Conservatives will talk about pensions and rocketing public spending (Brown has still not delivered any of the promised civil service cuts),
Actually, he has. Ask the PCS if you don’t believe me.
Brown wants the Tories to talk about “rocketing public spending” as they have actually pledged to match Labour penny for penny. If they complain they will be revealed to be two-faced.
and they’ll wax sanctimoniously about the country’s struggling middle-classes. In short, Gordon Brown will oversee the collapse of New Labour in 2008.
Yawn. Ask John Major, William Hague, Iain Duncan Smith and Michael Howard about that one. New Labour - if you mean a commitment to a social market economy and a liberal but communitarian approach to social policy - is the only game in town and Gordon Brown is not so stupid as to abandon it.
And even if the government stumbles on into ‘09, the project will already be dead and Brown’s political career over.
I know you are looking for excuses to sign up as a Cleggster, but you have to do better than this.
It certainly won’t be an easy year for Labour. Perhaps I am in Pollyanna mode (or should that be Polly Toynbee mode?) but I don’t think that Brown is doomed yet.
For me the most pleasant political surprise is the Paisley/McGuinness collaboration. Who’d have thought it?
Jams,
I hope not! The guy has been fishing for the job long enough. Let’s hope he gets the chance to prove himself.
As for apparatchik no 365 above, I’ll answer him/her in turn. It’s new years, so I’ll let these desperate myopic thrashings prove my point without further comment. Much appreciated, obviously.
“Labour,“
Before we start. I rarely approve anonymous comments - especially ones who provide a duff email address (bad form indeed). I prefer commenters to have the courage of their convictions.
“Incredible†pressure? Get a grip. Where from? The Tories? Big deal. The saliency of this issue to the electorate is close to zero.
Er, no. Actually *if you speak to people*, as I do, you’ll find that the Tory line about Brown’s unelectedness actually strikes a cord. The Tories *have* gained traction with this line - even if, our parliamentarian system negates the need for Brown to call an election. I live and work in “close†constituencies. Also, if the “saliency of this issue to the electorate is close to zeroâ€, then why are Labour getting slaughtered in the polls.
Also, this is clearly getting to Brown. Take a looksy at him on PMQs whenever DC spins this line. You can’t deny the facts. Though, you’ll probably try.
Yes, but not many.
Wow, that’s pretty fucking cold, dude.
More wishful thinking. There will be economic growth and interest rate cuts in 2008. There will be a big squeeze on profits in 2008, but not so bad for the personal sector, at least by the final quarter. Brown will, I guess, emerge with a slightly enhanced economic reputation precisely because all his destractors will have predicted a disaster which never materialises.
Now that made me laugh. Here we go again. Another raft of people who deny the realities of economics. Overheated economies slow down or at worse they crash. They ALWAYS do. Especially ones built on finite cheap foreign credit (China is already diversifying its portfolio).
Every time a developed economy has experienced sustained growth, people have claimed it’ll never end - they’re *always* proved wrong. Global growth will remain strong in ‘08, which will help temper our own situation - but the Anglo-Saxon economies will slow, significantly. Economics 101 for you I’m afraid. Lesson one - watch the gold price… (I know, you really don’t want to discuss the price of gold right now… how much exactly did Brown sell our reserves for??)
Actually, he has. Ask the PCS if you don’t believe me.
I must have lost the number.
Brown wants the Tories to talk about “rocketing public spending†as they have actually pledged to match Labour penny for penny. If they complain they will be revealed to be two-faced.
It’s about returns on those investments. Personally I don’t think we get much more for the increased taxes we pay. And believe me, the tax burden HAS rocketed under this government. Where’s the reform that the money demanded? Why are so many government departments in a dire state.
Why do we have a prison crisis, when people have predicted it for over a decade??? And why are our children so unhappy? (FACT)
Yawn. Ask John Major, William Hague, Iain Duncan Smith and Michael Howard about that one. New Labour - if you mean a commitment to a social market economy and a liberal but communitarian approach to social policy - is the only game in town and Gordon Brown is not so stupid as to abandon it.
Ah yes, yawn (you got me there, that was witty).
Please, don’t mention “liberal“ in the same breath as New Labour, you’ll make my eyes itch.
And no, I mean New Labour as an entity designed for dynastic government. There has been a cultural change with regard to our opinion of the governments role. But then again, I never said there hadn’t.
I know you are looking for excuses to sign up as a Cleggster, but you have to do better than this.
Nah, I’m about to go all yellow on anyone. Clegg has some merit, but his performances during the leadership campaign left me feeling rather subdued.
The Lib Dems have a useful role in British Politics, chiefly to piss off the main parties.
So, sorry, but no. I’m not going Cleggy.
I would like to draw my readership to the bunker mentality expressed in your comments. I think it proves my point perfectly. Happy New Years.