I wouldn’t be getting too ahead of myself, but Russian officials are keen to express that they are winning their War on Terror, as violence in Chechnya, its want-a-way republic, appears to be subsiding.
Chechnya, situated on Russia’s South East fringe among the Northern Caucasus Mountains, has been a thorn in the side of the nascent Russian ‘democracy.’ When the Soviet Union collapsed in 1991, the republic declared its independence from Russia. However, as Chechnya was never a separate entity within the USSR (unlike the those in the Baltic, and South Asian states such as Kazakhstan), Boris Yeltsin and his successor President Putin have refused to consider its dislocation from the Russian Federation. There have been two subsequent wars in the republic, leaving parts of the capital Groznyy in ruin.
Topically, the former FSB spy, Alexander Litvinenko, claimed that Putin plotted the Second Chechen War by ordering bombs to be placed in Russian apartments, which were later blamed on separatist terrorists. I don’t buy this. Islamic Chechen separatist groups, particularly those led by the now-slain Shamil Basayev, have proven themselves to be violent and callous murderers, and have long had links with al-Qaida.
Russia now considers the separatists defeated. Rather confidently Putin’s defence minister, Sergei Ivanov, has declared, “The problem has been solved.” Which to me smacks of Bush’s arrogant and foolish declaration aboard the USS Lincoln.
I don’t have strong opinions on whether Chechnya should be allowed to cede. Certainly many Russians I have spoken to demand that the country gets back in line. While the vast majority of Chechens are Sunni Muslim, it’s unclear whether the terrorists really do speak for the majority, although I suspect they - the majority - would welcome a peaceful independence (ethnic-Russians, who in 1991 represented almost a quarter of the population, now make up barely 5%). People who yearn for self-determination, and view their existence as under the yoke of a foreign power, very rarely just accept defeat. The secure coalescence Russia desires may not be possible.
The separatists have lost several key leaders (including the brutal Basayev), and will have seen their supply of willing jihadists dry-up as America intervened in Iraq, but if America pulls out of Iraq, and a victory is claimed by the radical Islamists, will this not give them confidence to ‘reclaim’ Chechnya as an Islamic State? I can’t help but think that unless Russia can bring stability to Chechnya and foster serious economic opportunities for its people, they will see this puss-filled wound open again.
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Good basic sitrap.
paart of the russian response to chechnya has been a fear of other states ceding if they lead the way. incidently, after the 1999 economic crash, several republics did actually declare autonomy from central gov and implemented policies like strict import/export controls and refusing federal transfers, which smack of independence. they were brought into line shortly afterwards.
there was also the hilarious fact that Yeltsin, in an attempt to curry favour, gave many oblasts, etc., constitutions in direct conflict wth the federal one and involving what we would normally cite as criteria for independence - eg keeping a local army. the latter backfired when one area (can’t recall if it was oblast, okrug (sp?) or republic) declared war on a neighbouring area.
Good to learn of the Chechnya situation through you, Tyger, something I lacked really. Your words seem reasonable to me.
Jose, no problem. Nice to be writing about Russia again, been a while. Itching to go back.
Scrybe, Yeltsin was a joke. Many of Russia’s current problems can be traced back to this drunkard. He was the bitch of those who deliberately brought down the USSR from within. Don’t get me wrong; I don’t mourn the passing of the Communist empire, but I’m informed enough to know it wasn’t the West that pulled down the Soviet Union (as so many Reaganites have claimed), but those internally who profited from its demise.