So what if the challenge to Tony Blair’s leadership is successful and Blair is thrust out over the coming weeks? Of course the plan is to force him to announce a departure date, but you know these things can turn nasty. So lets us indulge ourselves and ask, “what if Tony were forced out next week?â€
At first the government would be thrust into turmoil. Would it be Gordon Brown who steps forward to take the helm while the leadership is decided, or would John Prescott exercise his authority and constitutional right to seize control of the cabinet? In my estimation Brown would be wise to allow Prescott to oversee the accession; time for Brown to rally his troops and begin the assault, without the worry of a scandal to sully his chances. Anyway, surely the country would not allow Brown to simply be crowned by default? Indeed the electorate, and the Labour Party, demand an election.
I would expect Brown, John Reid, Alan Johnson, and maybe David Miliband to make up the ballot paper. Miliband would, in my opinion, run as the modernising Blairite outsider, gaining confidence from Cameron’s capture of the Conservative Leadership. However the ambitious young MP would probably offer his sworn allegiance to Brown when it becomes clear the dour Scot is going to win.
A victorious Brown would raise hands as the new leader of the government.
However, would Brown call a snap election to give himself the political mandate to run the country? Refusing to do so would leave him wide open to Tory - not to mention Blairite - jibes that he’s an illegitimate leader lacking the political capital to govern. At a 19-year low in the polls, Labour’s position is precarious at best. But Blair will leave his successor a genuine legacy: the required gerrymandering has been completed and the Tory’s must play a blinder to win the majority needed to rule outright.
Stalemate.
This could mean discussions between Lib Dem’s and Conservatives; but does a coalition with the Right sit easy with Menzies Campbell? Methinks they would be wise to grab any chance at governance with both hands. A couple of talented Lib Dem’s in Cameron’s cabinet could be the change that makes the electorate take a future Lib Dem government seriously. Then again, perhaps not.
Of course Brown could play his trump card. By setting a swift timetable for the withdrawal of troops from Iraq, he would with one decision, dislocate himself from Blair’s bloody legacy, put clear blue water between himself and an unpopular US president, and endear himself to Labour’s priceless Muslim voters. Kerching! On a wave of relief, and indeed ‘renewal,’ Brown would sail to victory.
Ed Balls would no doubt take over the Treasury, and the rest of the Brownites would be paid handsomely for their loyalty. Let the Court of Gordon commence.
So what do you think?
Sphere: Related Content
Don’t you think that Brown after so many years by Blair’s side is also burnt? As are those nearer to him as Prescott?
A soccer match is never lost by one man only, unless it is the goalie, the full team is involved.
Don’t be at all surprised if a Cabinet Minister (maybe Brown himself) delivers an attack on Blair in the Commons very soon; much like Sir Geoffrey “Like Being Mauled By A Dead Sheep” Howe delivered against Thatcher, which hastened her end.
This what news there is today about Brown’s demanding a timetable from Blair
see here
Richard was right. There goes the first cannonade from Brown, but still I’d distrust him.
Things look as if they are going to get messy.
Rupert Murdoch must have already known about Blair resigning on 31 May 2007 - after their little ‘chat’ recently.
But what a stab in the back for Blair by Murdoch - it’s now on his Sun’s Front page (and elswhere).
If you go along with the ‘conspiracy theory’ that Republican Neo-Conservative Bush (via Murdoch) now wants this Labour PM out of his ‘puppet government’ in the U.S.K. (because he no longer serves any useful purpose), then things will really start hotting up.
The Bush regime certainly don’t want any Labour Government next year (who are likely to be less obedient to US power), so that cancels out Brown, Prescott (and of course ‘Red Ken’!).
Cameron will be the one to watch.
I expect Murdoch and his Media Empire (after a chat with the US regime) will be knocking on Mr Cameron’s door to offer him ’sainthood’ status - while they find ways to ‘demonise’ any and every Labour candidate until May next year.
The only people who can stop this insanity is us. It’s up to us.
Of, by, and for the people (not the powerful) - it’s called “democracy” (not “plutocracy”)…
Yes, Richard, it seems things are going that way. And, by the way, Blair or any other politician are disposable. Rupert uses them and throw them away when used.
Mr Blair complained that he had been unable to follow the example of US politicians, such as President George W. Bush, in being open about his faith because people in Britain regarded religion with suspicion. The Blair Years, have been welcomed by leading Church figures, who fear that the rise of secularism is pushing religion to the margins of society. However, Mr Blair, who is now a Middle East peace envoy, has been attacked by commentators who say that religion should be separated from politics and by those who feel that many of his decisions betrayed the Christian community.