On the Canadian election

From The Globe and Mail: -

Conservatives win minority; Martin to step down as leader

Conservative Leader Stephen Harper was headed to Parliament Hill as Canada’s next prime minister after capturing a fragile minority victory in Monday’s election, picking up votes in Quebec and making inroads in Ontario but failing to scale the heights early polls had predicted.

The Conservatives do not have a mandate in Canada, this will be Stephen Harper’s main goal and expect to see early elections in little over two years if he makes progress in cementing his authority.

I think this result is justified because of the shift in power westward towards Calgary, following the rising fuel prices. It’s ironic that Canada, who of course opposed military action in Iraq has been its main beneficiary – save for perhaps Tehran.

The Albertan oil sands are not a new discovery, but their economic viability has always been a problem with oil valued at less than $20-per-bl. Of course few industries are as resourceful and efficient as the petrochemical industry, and new techniques and economies of scale will drive down further the marginal cost of separating and refining the bitumen.

Canada is now second only to Saudi Arabia in the reserve stakes, and Northern Alberta will become one of the most important geo-political regions on earth.

One question this new Albertan affluence raises is the viability of a unified Canada. Long has the eastern French-speaking province of Quebec pondered dislocation from the rest of Canada, and the 1995 referendum on the subject was very tight, with the Quebecers eventually deciding to remain with Ottawa. Will a western conservative government alienate Quebecers – leading to a population increasingly disenfranchised with ‘Canada’, or will Canada’s newfound wealth ensure political stability? While Canadian Provinces have significant autonomy, will Albertans continue to allow ‘their’ wealth to be redistributed across the other regions?

What is clear is that Harper will have to sate both the Quebecers and Albertans if he hopes to maintain Canada’s current territorial integrity.