Is DVD dead?

There is much talk of the new DVD Video Storage medium, which will be compatible with HDTV; Toshiba has anounced a player, ready for March, at under $500.

From Crave:

Toshiba has been shouting about the HD DVD format for a while, fighting off Sony’s rival Blu-ray in a bitter standards war. Toshiba’s format is supposedly cheaper to produce and has the backing of Microsoft, but so far we’ve yet to see an HD DVD player. Today at CES, Toshiba showed off not one but two new players, one designed to hit the mainstream market, and one hoping to attract the flush, high-end buyer.

The cheapest way to get HD DVD will be the HD-A1, which will be released for $499 (£285 — but expect to pay more once it’s crossed the Atlantic) in March. It will play back HD DVDs in 720p and 1080i formats, which will surely disappoint those holding off for high-quality 1080p TVs.

The good news is that the player will also upscale standard DVDs to these resolutions, and the player supports HDMI for a crystal-clear video output. The player also has USB support, which a Toshiba bigwig said was for ‘gamepads’. Perhaps a greater level of interactivity can be expected from HD DVD discs, but we doubt Microsoft and Sony will have anything to worry about.

Industry totally overestimates the public’s appetite for another video storage medium. VHS served peoples needs for over 30 years and it was only the obvious shortcomings of the media – in light of other new digital media – that made DVD so appealing. There are no such technological shortcomings in the DVD format yet (unless sales of HD-TV rocket).

It’s about the cost/benefit to the consumer, laserdisc technology was available for years prior to DVD, but it was limited, expensive, and cumbersome; laserdisc was just simply not worth the additional cost over VHS. This meant people did not buy and the marginal costs of the system remained high, ultimately meaning failure for the technology. There will always be tech-savvy adopters to new media but neither Blu-Ray nor HD-DVD will have the same penetration as the ubiquitous DVD.

The same argument used above for Blu-Ray/HD-DVD serves, HDTV. It may become the standard, but certainly not as quickly as DVD. Marginal costs will reduce the costs of HDTV and more will buy, but at what pace?

Does HDTV offer a serious cost/benefit over std TV, to tempt the average family, as DVD did over VHS, and does the consumer feel Std TV is exhausted?

Don’t throw away your DVD player just yet!

NB. I understand Sony’s new Playstation3 will use Blu-Ray storage, which is more expensive than Toshiba’s HD-DVD.

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