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I have just enjoyed a delicious Dry Chilli Chicken and fried rice from a Chinese fast food stall.  I have eaten my fair share of spicy food this week; I had Korean yesterday – chilli beef noodle soup followed by an excellent pork dish that was so spicy it felt like I had a party in my mouth, and the only people who had turned up were pyromaniacs.

Last night my partner - an ethnic-Russian Estonian - and I had a traditional Russian drinking session with her father (Vladimir); our chatter – mainly political – was helped by copious amount of very good Russian vodka, olives, caviar, salmon, and cake. 

The debate went from American hegemony to the rise of China with Vladimir arguing that the former Soviet bulwark (against American dominance) was infinitely preferable to a future Chinese one.  I did not necessarily agree as the Chinese seem to thrive as traders, but Vladimir did have a point, and as a merchant sailor all his life he knows more about the world than I could claim to. 

WW1 was as much a war about economics as fervent nationalism; the access to resources and trade routes enjoyed by the British and French were – it was perceived - threatened by Germany’s increasing military prowess.  Alliances were forged and treaties signed, and eventually the assassination of an unloved Austro-Hungarian duke led to a war that killed almost 9 million. 

In 2005 with world energy and commodities in high demand, similar tensions are simmering.  Sino-Japanese relations – tempestuous at the best of times – are becoming increasingly strained over prime mister Junichiro Koizumi’s visits to military shrines that the Chinese argue are in deference to war criminals.  This has led to rising nationalism in China with demonstrations and mob attacks on the Japanese embassy – the Chinese authorities have done little to quell this venting of public fury.  A top-level quarrel over the disputed ownership of gas reserves in the East China Sea also causes regional strategists concern.  Japan is also considering changes to its constitution that would allow rapid militarization.  With Japanese technological virtuosity they could have a nuclear weapon in weeks never mind months or years.

So with Chinese economic and military growth (not to mention the rise of India – traditionally an ally of Soviet Russia) the geopolitical landscape looks tentatively insecure.  We may in fact as Vladimir suggests rue Perestroika…